Here's a tantalizing prospect. What if, amid the cacophony of online buzz -- all the tweets, blogs, searches, likes, and comments showering us every day -- there were enough digital clues that we could forecast the next hot product, successful startup, rising stock, or blooming celebrity?

Predicting (and cashing in on) collective behavior
The idea that online activity can be a preview of offline actions makes intuitive sense.  Consumers shopping for a new camera may seek recommendations from friends or search the Web for reviews and prices; moviegoers may tweet about films they've seen or plan to see; and individuals investigating vacation options may ask questions in online forums or may compare airfares. If so, measuring search counts, tweets, and mentions related to retail activity, movies, or travel should help forecasters predict collective behavior of economic, cultural, or political interest.

In recent years, a slew of research papers have appeared (one of them by us and our Yahoo! Research colleagues) to support this intuition. In parallel, startup companies such as WiseWindow, DataSift, and Gnip have begun to mine the social Web for patterns and trends that they then resell to other companies that want to track industry directions or perceptions of their brands. And then in March 2011, London hedge fund Derwent Capital Markets invested $40 million to test an Indiana University professor's theory that the country's mood, as reflected by language used on Twitter, could predict the stock market.

Grounds for skepticism
Amid the excitement are grounds for skepticism. The problem is, forecasts can't really be judged without considering how hard the outcome is to predict. For example, think about predicting the weather in Santa Fe, New Mexico. A prediction that is accurate 82% of the time sounds impressive until you realize that it is sunny in Santa Fe 300 days a year, hence one can be correct 82% of the time simply by predicting sunshine every day. Given this knowledge, any meteorologist whose predictions are not at least this accurate would be considered a joke.

For the same reason, the predictive power of social media must be judged in relation to statistical models fit with traditional data sources, prediction markets, or expert opinions. For example, the number of screens a movie opens on tells you a great deal about how much money the movie will bring in; today's stock price tells you a lot about tomorrow's price; and many trends in social media simply reflect information that appears in other kinds of media.

The buzz on buzz
It's not enough, in other words, to show that sentiment on Twitter is correlated with the stock market -- it must contain information that can't be obtained from any other source, like studying economic indicators or reading the paper or watching the market itself. Whether this is true remains to be seen.

All reservations notwithstanding, we predict that the buzz on buzz will grow in 2012. Since at least the Oracle of Delphi, scientists and charlatans alike have been trying to predict the future. In our view, the temptation to find in social media the elusive crystal ball will prove simply too strong to pass up.

David Pennock and Duncan Watts are both principal research scientists at Yahoo! Labs. Watts is the author, most recently, of "Everything is Obvious*: *Once You Know The Answer." Pennock is a regular contributor to The Signal, a Yahoo! blog about political predictions.

Photo by The Planet/Flickr

When a brutal Nor'easter swooped in on October 29, battering the East Coast with wind and snow and killing more than 30 people, it seemed a foreboding omen. Will this winter break records in snow? Will the East Coast have another Snowpocalypse?

As it turns out, the forecast says the mid-Atlantic has a chance of normal winter weather -- or not. A wild-card atmospheric pattern in the Arctic could bring above-average amounts of snow to the East Coast, but the real Snowmageddon-style blizzard is much more likely to happen in the northern Midwest, including Chicago. Thanks to the second winter of La Nina, which is a cooling of water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, forecasters are also predicting a warm and dry winter in the South, while the West Coast will be smacked repeatedly with rain.

The persistence of La Nina
La Nina might just stick around for spring and the summer, too. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which encompasses the National Weather Service, and the Old Farmer's Almanac both predict a wet, rainy North and a dry, hot South in 2012.

"It's unfortunate for some southern states," says Matthew Larsen, associate director for climate and land-use change at the U.S. Geological Survey. "Texas has been in a severe drought for some time. If we're looking at continually below-normal precip there, then that's not going to be good for them."

More extremes in the forecast
Up north, on the other hand, large swaths of North Dakota spent the summer months underwater, as floods forced 12,000 people to leave their homes. Unfortunately, this summer might not bring relief.

But what about storm seasons? That's all up in the air, so to speak. Thanks to global climate change, the temperature of the atmosphere has increased over time, and, as Larsen explains, that means the atmosphere holds more moisture. In turn, storms are getting bigger and more violent, so in the coming year, we shouldn't be shocked if we have at least one monster blizzard, tremendous hurricane, or epic flood that overwhelms existing dams and levees.

What climate change has to do with it
Those who've lost a loved one or a home in a natural disaster know how devastating these events can be. And many more people would feel the effects if a natural disaster were to threaten our water supply or cause entire crops to be wiped out.

With the atmosphere changing, the U.N. World Climate Research Program has attributed some of the deadliest global catastrophes, like the floods in Pakistan and the fires in Russia in 2010, to what they called "blocking episodes," in which rain doesn't move into or out of a particular region. According to a Pew Research Center report, an increasing number of Americans believe there is "solid evidence" that this global warming is occurring.

"You can't say with absolute certainty that any one of these events is strictly related to climate change," Larsen says. "But we can say these type of events are what we're likely to see in the changing climate scenario in the future. The potential is for more water to be delivered because of the warmer atmosphere, and the inverse, of course, is that we're also seeing models predicting what are called deeper droughts, which are more intense and longer lasting.

"The entire atmosphere is changing, based on the physics of the system we're perturbing. We're basically doing this big experiment on our planet, and we don't really know the outcome."

Lisa Hix is a freelance writer and former Yahoo! editor who has been published in the San Francisco Chronicle, Glamour, and Bust. She's currently an associate editor at Collectors Weekly and a KQED Arts blogger. Find her on Twitter.

2012 will most certainly be a banner year for blockbusters. Not only will Batman and Spider-Man return to America's megaplexes, but so will James Bond, a Hobbit, and, of course, everyone's favorite moony-eyed, sparkly vampire.

"The Dark Knight Rises"
The giddy anticipation around this movie is hard to overstate. Fans ardently praised "The Dark Knight" for director Christopher Nolan's somber, respectful take on the Caped Crusader and Heath Ledger's mesmerizing performance as the Joker; the movie is, in certain circles, considered the "Citizen Kane" of superhero movies. "The Dark Knight Rises" will be the final Batman movie for both Nolan and lead actor Christian Bale, so expect this one to be bigger, badder, and bleaker than the last. But will it have the same impact without the Joker?

"The Amazing Spider-Man"
As great as Sam Raimi's first two "Spider-Man" movies were, the third felt tired. Marc Webb, director of the emo-indie hit "(500) Days of Summer," gives Spidey and the gang a much-needed reboot, featuring Andrew Garfield as a skinnier, nervier Peter Parker.

"The Avengers"
And just in case you didn't think there were enough movies out there for superhero enthusiasts, there's also "The Avengers." That's right, Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, and the Hulk are all joining forces to battle the bad guys. It's a veritable sampler menu of costumed crime fighters. Add to that Joss Whedon of "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" as director of the epic, and you have something close to a perfect storm of fanboydom.

"The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn -- Part 2"
The "Twilight" series has enthralled millions while leaving others befuddled over the appeal of shirtless werewolves and glittering members of the undead. "Breaking Dawn -- Part 1" saw Bella in very short order marry Edward, have a picture-perfect honeymoon at a vampire resort in Brazil, and give birth to a baby with supernatural powers. And that's just part one. Part two promises more drama, with the evil Volturi and more vampire-on-werewolf tension. Expect Twihards to flock to this flick, the last of the series.

"Skyfall"
It has been three years since James Bond graced the silver screen, thanks in part to the bankruptcy of MGM. Precious little information has been released about this latest 007 action spectacular, except that Daniel Craig is returning as the leaner, meaner Bond and that he is facing off against a yet-to-be-named villain played by Anton Chigurh himself, Javier Bardem. There are even rumors that Bond's most famous nemesis, Ernst Blofeld, might make an appearance.

"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
Ever since the premiere of "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," back in 2003, fans have been asking when Tolkien's other great Middle Earth tome would get a big-screen, big-budget adaptation. A change of directors, lawsuits, and the aforementioned bankruptcy of MGM delayed things for a while, but the first half of Bilbo's saga will be in theaters next Christmas. The second half will be released the following year.

Jonathan Crow is an editor for Yahoo! Movies where he writes the weekly ‘Indie Roundup’ column. Follow him on Twitter at @jonccrow.

Women, hear this: In 2012, we'll throw away our power suits, scrap those tired boyfriend jeans, and toss out utilitarian military looks. A return to femininity is upon us.

The color palette on spring 2012 runways has been overwhelmingly pastel: Prada's soft, pleated A-line frocks; Valentino's pale, etched lace numbers; Louis Vuitton's cotton-candy ensembles; Preen's playful, whimsical pairings.

A peplum silhouette, a short overskirt attached to a dress, skirt, or jacket, reigned supreme. Talk about a throwback; the look became widely popular all the way back in the 1940s. This year, Jason Wu, favorite designer of first lady Michelle Obama, showed it; Nina Ricci and YSL did so, as well; and even Giorgio Armani, known the world over for his sleek, minimalist (antifeminine) designs, included it in his show.

Elegant, fussy matte satin prevailed as the fabric of choice, with Balenciaga, Miu Miu, Lanvin, Victoria Beckham, and Christopher Kane working their respective magic with the stuff.

Still, it remains to be seen whether we'll see a full-on revival of Christian Dior's New Look of 1947, which defined femininity as full bustlines, tiny waists, and billowing skirts. This came in the wake of World War II, when the men had been overseas, the women had taken jobs in the factories, and the materials used in haute couture had been rationed. When the men came back home, Rosie the Riveters were encouraged to step back into the role of housewives and to indulge in frivolous luxuries.

It's true that tens of thousands of soldiers are scheduled to return from Iraq and Afghanistan, but it's unlikely that today's liberated woman is going to embrace such a dramatic social shift. It's more likely that next year's flirty fashion will be just be a dalliance, a chance for well-rounded women to flaunt their fun, feminine sides.

Ariel Kaiser is a wardrobe stylist and a lifestyle blogger living in Brooklyn with her fiancé. She styles celebrities, models, musicians, kids, and real women of every shape and color. When she isn't running around Manhattan with a towering pile of garment bags, she's writing posts for her popular women's style blog, which appears on The Thread. Like her mother, she's never paid full retail price for anything.

Inspired by John Naisbitt's eerily accurate 1980 book, "Megatrends," Stephen Abram, a leading international librarian, looks ahead 20 years to make his predictions about trends that will change the world. Here's what he says will likely go down in 2012:

1. We'll switch to virtual payment systems.
The way we pay for things is about to change drastically, Abram says. While the first "frictionless payment system" called Square was introduced in 2010, Abram predicts these virtual wallets will really capture the public imagination in 2012. Instead of using credit or debit cards, you'd have a device attached to or built into your smartphone that allows you to pay for something instantly.

It seems like online payment companies such as SalesVu, Google Wallet, and Ben Milne's startup Dwolla have arrived at the perfect time -- amid Occupy Wall Street protests and growing disgruntlement with giant financial institutions that issue credit cards. Dwolla bypasses credit cards altogether.

2. We'll all be using smartphones, sooner rather than later.
Before these frictionless payment systems can take over, the majority of the U.S. population has to be using smartphones. At the moment, 40% of Americans use smartphones, Abram says. He believes we'll reach the tipping point next year, thanks to the explosive growth of Android phones and the iPhone 4S, and the possible release of iPhone 5 in 2012. Plus, Microsoft upped the ante with Mango, the update for its Windows 7 Phone. Mango offers more seamless integration with Facebook, letting users text, phone, email, IM, or tweet anyone on their friends list. But perhaps the most frictionless Facebook integration will occur when the social network launches its own smartphone in partnership with HTC, possibly late next year.

3. Social networking will go to the next level: commerce.
Speaking of Facebook, have you noticed how you're suddenly seeing lists of articles your friends clicked on? Well, they didn't post them; Facebook did. Next year, "you won't actively write things on your wall; instead, the wall is going to start self-populating with your behaviors," Abram says. "Believe it, yes, it's creepy." (Facebook is also rumored to be going public between April and June 2012.)

Naturally, the tech industry, particularly sites such as Twitter and Google, sees tracking as a "massive economic opportunity." First, your preferences can be mined for market research and personalized advertising. Then, anything you recommend -- from books to concert tickets -- can be sold to your friends on the spot. "You have to remember you're not Google's customer," Abram says. "You're the product that they sell to their advertisers."

Recently, there's been an outcry from privacy advocates, particularly over how Facebook tracks users on the Web. U.S. Senator Jay Rockefeller has called a hearing to investigate the matter.

4. This new form of advertising will follow you through GPS and geotagging.
Does that sound like Big Brother to you? Well, our world is about to get even more like science fiction. Remember the scene in "Minority Report" where the subway ads and billboards address the hero by name?

With the GPS and geotagging features in your smartphone, advertisers will not only know who you are and what you buy, but they'll also know where you are, Abram says. That way, they can send coupons and promotions tailored to your tastes and location. For example, when walking by a store in a different city, you might receive a text message inviting you to come in for a sale.

5. Every smartphone will have a voice-operated assistant.
Siri, the voice-operated personal assistant app on the Apple iPhone, was possibly the biggest technological breakthrough of 2011. It's just the beginning, Abram says.

Siri "is the scariest thing to Google and Facebook right now," he says, because it frees users from the keyboard and reduces the friction between the smartphone and the people who lack the skills to fully exploit it. "There are other ones coming along in the back room that haven't made it out as quickly."

Android has several Siri wannabe apps, including Iris, Friday, and Cluzee, while the Windows Phone has an app called TellMe.

6. Information clouds will redefine what it means to own things.
As digital information clouds continue to expand, you'll see fewer people with great collections. At some point, we'll be able to stream all our music, TV, movies, and books through subscription services. "It's one of those frog-in-the-frying-pan things where you're just unaware that you've changed your perception of what it means to own," Abram says. "It's shifting from owning content in a physical format to owning priority personal access, and that's going to keep happening in 2012."

7. Digital curators will rise in importance.
With this influx of information, Abram believes trusted Internet influencers will become even more important. Everyone you know can make recommendations, but who shares your tastes? At the same time, so-called content farms are flooding the Web with information, some of it incorrect or misleading, with hidden biases or agendas. If we're smart in 2012, Abram says, we'll start to look to credible sources for information -- professional curators, professionally managed databases, and knowledge portals -- instead of the first site that comes up in a search.

"That's going to be the next step," he says. "If we don't get through that step, we're going to have such a diminution of intelligence within culture that we have Big Brother at a very scary level, where you're not even aware of how you're being manipulated."

Ultimately, Abram is hopeful about our technological future. "I see people being more connected and knowing more about each other," Abram says. "I want to have a world where people understand each other, and I see that happening. But maybe I'm an optimist."

Lisa Hix is a freelance writer and a former Yahoo! editor who has been published in the San Francisco Chronicle, Glamour, and Bust. She's currently an associate editor at Collectors Weekly and a KQED Arts blogger. Find her on Twitter.

Photo by Blake Patterson/Flickr

If I had to guess where we'll be a year from now, in terms of the stock market, I'd probably go with the long-term averages and say that we'll be about 8 to 10% percent higher than we are today. But aside from playing the averages, there are several other reasons why lots of professional investors see this rally continuing, and chief among them is earnings.

Despite the protests of the Occupy Wall Street movement, this country's biggest businesses are lean, mean, profit machines that are pegged to deliver record earnings. And the more money they make, the cheaper they get, in terms of valuation. As it stands now, the P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio is, by historical standards, cheap. How cheap? A dollar of earnings today costs about 30% less than it has, on average, over the past 20 years.

Time to invest
While that puts a floor beneath the market as well as a carrot out in front of it, several strategists are expecting to see continued volatility in 2012. That can be viewed either as the cost of doing business or as an incentive to trade or to actively invest.

We also need to be mindful of the fact that, by March, this bull market will be three years old and will have gained, give or take, 100% since the lows of 2009. While that is above average on the percentage side, it is below average on the duration side, meaning it is perfectly plausible for stocks to rally for a fourth year, but you need to be aware that it is also getting late in the so-called cycle.

Electioneering
Economically speaking, from the president on down, we have been told to be patient and informed that rebuilding the economy will not happen overnight. At the same time, past election years have been tremendous for stocks, and it would be surprising if an unpopular president didn't throw everything he had to boost the economy, jobs, and housing. That said, we are clearly in for a season of politicking and campaigning, and the forces of gridlock may break the normal chain of events. Of all the expected themes of 2012, none is more widely anticipated than the election. Perhaps the only beneficiaries will be media companies, which will likely sell unprecedented numbers of TV spots.

That said, strategists tell me that the big macroeconomic headwind story, which has gripped our collective consciousness for the better part of three years now, will be taken down a notch in 2012. Don't expect to see boom times, but do expect to see gradual improvement, with no meaningful worsening of unemployment and home prices.

Matt Nesto has been been covering the global financial markets for nearly 20 years. Prior to joining Yahoo!, Nesto was a CNBC correspondent and served at Bloomberg Television as an anchor, reporter, and managing editor. He has also worked as a financial consultant and registered investment advisor.  A graduate of Emerson College, Nesto co-hosts the Breakout program with Jeff Macke.

For much of the Beijing Olympics in 2008, there was one dominant story: Michael Phelps powering his way to an astonishing eight gold medals in the swimming pool.

Four years on, Phelps is virtually guaranteed to occupy a permanent place in the headlines in the 2012 London Olympics, but this time he might have company. What resembled a one-man show in Beijing could morph into an epic Olympic rivalry, as Phelps's American teammate Ryan Lochte has emerged as a favorite to win several events, thanks to a spectacular season.

Lochte won five gold medals at the World Aquatics Championship and was named World Swimmer of the Year in 2011. While Phelps will always be the golden boy to many, Lochte's good looks and relaxed personality could endear him to a wider audience when London rolls around. In November, Lochte, Phelps, and women's team member Natalie Coughlin modeled the new superhero-esque, FINA-approved Speedo Fastskin3 swimsuit and space-age goggles. They asserted that, despite its advantages, the suit won't deserve the credit for their wins.

Phelps and Lochte will likely square off in several events at the London Aquatics Centre -- a state-of-the-art facility built for the upcoming Olympics. The two are friends away from the pool, but their rivalry in the water will be intensified further when Lochte announces how many events he plans to enter. At the world championships, Lochte swam in six events, but it's believed he's likely to add more to his program in an attempt to match either 1972 legend Mark Spitz (winner of seven golds) or Phelps's haul of eight -- or even aim for nine, which is uncharted territory in the Olympic pool.

Experts are already favoring Lochte over Phelps, as some have suggested Phelps's best days are behind him, even though he's only 26. However, Phelps, who relaxed his training routine during the first three years after the 2008 Olympics, has promised that his spectacular form from Beijing will return in time for the start of the Summer Games, setting up a monumental showdown to captivate the world.

Yahoo! Sports general assignment writer/reporter Martin Rogers spent seven years as a soccer writer for the London Daily Mirror, covering the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Cup, and international soccer. A journalism graduate from Harlow College, he is now based in Los Angeles and covers soccer, boxing, golf, and the Olympics.

As the last U.S. combat troops in Iraq prepare to return home, 2012 seems to offer a glimmer of hope for war-weary Americans suffering under economic strain. Could the United States finally be finished with its decade-long operations in the Middle East? Might the government redirect resources toward solving domestic problems?

More importantly, what will the global impact be when Americans go home? There have been plenty of worst-case scenarios offered, but the man who directed the Counterinsurgency Training Center in Kabul offers some solid hope -- if politics in an election year don't get in the way.

Double wind-down
The decade since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks has been defined by two major wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which have taken the lives of thousands of U.S. soldiers and have cost trillions of taxpayer dollars, with uncertain results. However, there was at least one major U.S. victory among the murky engagements: the killing of al-Qaida founder Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in May 2011.

Now President Obama has followed through on plans to wind both wars down. The final withdrawal of American troops from Iraq is scheduled for this month, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan is underway, with some 10,000 troops of the 100,000-strong U.S. force expected to return home by the end of the year. For 2012, President Obama intends to pull out about 33,000 troops, or approximately one-third of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, by September. The goal is for NATO coalition combat forces to turn over security to Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

Read more about the troop withdrawal from Iraq

However, when it comes to the Middle East, nothing is ever simple. The government of Pakistan, a key if problematic ally on Afghanistan's border, is outraged by NATO air strikes on the border, which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers on November 27. Pakistan then pulled out of an international NATO conference intended to assist Afghanistan's peace talks with the Taliban. Late in November, Iraq experienced episodes of insurgent violence. In Afghanistan, Islamist insurgent groups like the Haqqani network -- alleged by outgoing U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen to receive support from Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence Directorate -- are targeting suspected informants for gruesome murders. The Afghan government, led by president Hamid Karzai, is still bedeviled with corruption, and the Afghan economy is fragile. In fact, Karzai just asserted at a meeting in Bonn, Germany, that Afghanistan would need an American military presence for at least another decade.

Worse-case scenario ... unlikely
The global impact of this Afghanistan withdrawal on 2012 depends entirely on how it is handled, says retired Army Colonel John Agoglia, who is currently vice president of IDS International, a team of experts on conflict, instability, and crisis. The worst-case scenario involves the country descending into civil war, which would erode the standing of the United States in the region, and which would strengthen militant extremist groups like al-Qaida, the Taliban, and the Haqqani network.

But Agoglia, who spent three years directing the Counterinsurgency Training Center in Kabul, doesn't think that's going to happen. The NATO coalition forces have secured several former Taliban strongholds and have gained the trust the of the Afghan people, as the U.S. is working with the Afghans to help them develop government and economic institutions. For these reasons, Agoglia says the withdrawal is not his preferred strategy, as it limits the Army commander's ability to go after the Haqqani network. But it is possible to remove all 30,000-plus troops this year without leaving behind chaos or safe havens for violent groups like al-Qaida. The most important thing is for the troops to be removed from each region strategically, taking into consideration the strength and stability of the Afghan security forces and government in the area.

If Obama lets politics get the best of him, however, and sets hard-and-fast deadlines to score political points on the home front ahead of the elections, instead of sticking to a conditions-based withdrawal, that's where things could go wrong. But Agoglia believes Obama is aware of the stakes.

"President Obama has said he's committed to resolving the crisis in Afghanistan. He's been working it; he committed to the surge. While the message has been a little back-and-forth in terms of the idea of a conditions-based withdrawal, it seems like his administration understands the need for a conditions-based withdrawal. He's caught between the need for meeting his political goals, but at the same time meeting the objectives of the campaign strategy, so he's walking a fine line. But I don't think he will to go the point of risking the hard-fought gains on the ground from the surge for political expedency."

A soldier's homecoming
At home in the U.S., the return of tens of thousands of soldiers promises to create new challenges for Congress and the president to address. If the size of the Armed Forces is reduced, which is likely, that's a lot of young men and women looking for work in a job-strapped economy. Already, returning veterans are struggling to find work; the unemployment rate among veterans, at 13.3%, is higher than the national average. Thanks to the Post-9/11 GI Bill, enacted in 2009, many of them will be have a chance to get more education on the government's dime.

The country will also see a rise of combat-related psychological disorders, as one report estimates that 26% of returning soldiers will suffer from traumatic brain injury, depression, or post-traumatic stress disorder. These injuries and disorders may manifest over months and years, when veterans find it difficult to readjust to civilian life. The Department of Defense and Veterans Affairs are already bracing for an influx of PTSD cases.

Lisa Hix is a freelance writer and a former Yahoo! editor who has been published in the San Francisco Chronicle, Glamour, and Bust. She's currently an associate editor at Collectors Weekly and a KQED Arts blogger. Find her on Twitter.

Statistically speaking, the 2012 U.S. elections will be tight. There's a significant likelihood that the outcome could be anything from the Republicans gaining control of all three branches of government to the two parties maintaining the current balance of one and a half branches each.

How significant? We can make some calculations by looking at the year-end data from prediction markets, including Betfair and Intrade. A prediction market is a place where political handicappers buy and sell contracts on whether an upcoming event, such as President Barack Obama's re-election, will occur. The market price reflects how much money users are willing to invest up front in order to win back one dollar if they are right. This price is a meaningful indicator of the probability of the event occurring.

Obama has a 51.2% likelihood of winning re-election, with a 41.0% likelihood of facing Mitt Romney. At this time, Newt Gingrich is Romney's greatest threat, with a 39.5% likelihood of winning the GOP nomination. The Republicans have a 25% likelihood of retaining the House, while the Democrats have a 25% likelihood of retaining the Senate. (Democrats control 23 of the 33 open seats  in the Senate.)

Here is a look at how the most important predictions have moved during most of 2011. Events such as the death of Osama bin Laden and the Republican debates have shifted the likelihoods you see below.

Heath care will play a key role in 2012. The Supreme Court will rule in June on the constitutionality of the individual mandate from Obama's landmark health-care legislation. Prediction markets determine a 40% likelihood that the justices will strike down the mandate, effectively disabling the law. Obama championed and signed the law, but Romney is heavily invested in it as well, as his Massachusetts health-care law was the basis of the federal law.

Taxes and budgets, tea parties, and Occupy Wall Street protests will also be prominent in 2012. Occupy Wall Street has helped redefine the political discourse in just the past few weeks, energizing references to the top 1%, income inequality, and the regressive or progressive nature of different tax policies. This will make a difference in 2012, as the nation will talk about these issues, along with the super committee's likely failure to reach a budget agreement, the threat of massive budget cuts, and the return to pre-Bush tax rates. The economy, and inequities therein, will hang over Congress and the president all election cycle.

In foreign policy, the United States committed to withdrawing from Iraq by the end of 2011, and the operation in Libya is over, but more may be in store for 2012. There is a 22.8% likelihood of a U.S.- or Israel-led airstrike on Iran by the end of 2012. Politicians in the United States are talking a lot about Bashar Al-Assad from Syria, who has a 47.5% likelihood of losing power before the end of 2012.

David Rothschild is an economist with Yahoo! Research Labs in New York. Rothschild writes for The Signal, which is a collaboration between Yahoo! Research and Yahoo! News that is dedicated to using objective data to explain the world as it was, is, and will be.

Don't panic. Yes, another Mayan inscription referencing December 21, 2012, has been found, this one at Comalcalco, Mexico. Previously, the only known reference to this date was a Mayan stone tablet found at nearby Tortuguero. The Tortuguero inscription says that Mayan god Bolon Yokte, a deity of war and creation, will arrive at that time.

But scholars and scientists insist that this does not mean the world is ending. In fact, the National Institute of Anthropological History in Mexico just assembled a group of experts to combat the rising hysteria. The institute issued a statement that read, "The West's messianic thinking has distorted the world view of ancient civilizations like the Mayans."

If you speak to anyone who knows anything about the Mayan calendar, they will tell you the ancient Maya believed the gods had a changing of the guard every 20 years. So, the arrival of Bolon Yokte would not mean the apocalypse. So say New Age gurus, NASA scientists, and serious scholars -- like etchings specialist Erik Velasquez, who recently told Reuters that the doomsday take was a "marketing fallacy."

It's just a calendar
What they all agree on is that the winter solstice, December 21, 2012, is the end of the 13th Baktun, a division of time that represents approximately 400 years. On the long-form Mayan calendar, which has fallen out of use, the end of the 13th Baktun represents the end of one big 5,000-plus-year cycle and the beginning of a new one.

Where opinion splits is on what December 21, 2012, does mean. Mayan scholars insist the date is no more meaningful than the change of the millennium on the Gregorian calendar.

"The solar year is not an arbitrary divider of time; the sun making a complete cycle is a significant astronomical event," says Tom Guderjan, professor of anthropology at the University of Texas at Tyler and president of the Maya Research Program. "But when you put years into bigger groups, they start losing their meaning. A lot of people thought the world was going to end on January 31, 1999, but of course, it did not."

Great awakening?
Others, like Eden Sky, who maintains the New Age site 13moons.com, writes that winter solstice 2012 represents a turning point in a shift in human consciousness that is happening now. Sky explains that we are in a time of "uncertainty and imbalance" (hello, Occupy Wall Street) and that we are on the verge of a great awakening that can lead to humanity's self-destruction or a more harmonious existence on Earth. Guderjan, for one, isn't buying it.

"Some Mayan shamen known as 'h'men' from the Yucatan, who've been hanging out with the New Age set for 30 years, are making good money talking about this renewal," Guderjan says. "Basically, it is profiteering. If you talk to traditional h'men who stayed home with their people, they don't believe this."

Sky's page also touches on the Galactic Alignment Theory of John Major Jenkins, what she calls "a rare 26,000-year alignment between the December solstice sun with the Galactic equator," also known as the bright center of the Milky Way. Other popular myths about 2012 including the approach of fictional planet Nibiru, and the reversal of the magnetic poles, which believers claim will cause the earth's rotation to reverse. It's a complicated and fascinating mythology, but according to NASA Astrobiology Institute senior scientist David Morrison, it's a bunch of hooey.

Disaster, aliens, oh my
As 2012 approaches, obsession with the Mayan calendar seems to be reaching a fever pitch. Roland Emmerich's 2009 disaster film "2012" capitalized on this collective fear. Raul Julia-Levy -- Mexican American actor, filmmaker, and son of late actor Raul Julia -- is producing a documentary film, "Revelations of the Mayans 2012 and Beyond," which purports to have evidence that the Maya had close ties to aliens.

"This idea about aliens is disrespectful to the contemporary Maya, living in Guatemala, Yucatan, Belize, and Chiapas," says Bruce Love, a Mayan scholar for the Archaeological Institute of America. "Whatever the significance of the date is, it is significance we are putting on it; it's not the significance the Maya are putting on it. It's not coming from anywhere in the literature or in the Mayan hieroglyphic writing."

Lisa Hix is a freelance writer and a former Yahoo! editor who's been published in the San Francisco Chronicle, Glamour, and Bust. She's currently an associate editor at Collectors Weekly and a KQED Arts blogger. Find her on Twitter.

Photo by Adam Baker/Flickr